Climate change research

Why is this project important?

The NSW marine environment is one of the most rapidly warming regions of the global ocean.

These changes are having major impacts on our marine estate ecosystems, yet the severity of many impacts remain unknown. This makes it difficult to prepare for, and adapt to, any changes.

This project is filling critical knowledge gaps regarding the impact of climate change on the NSW coast to help our marine ecosystems and ocean users adapt to climate change.

We are undertaking strategic research to fill knowledge gaps on the effects of climate change within the NSW marine estate.

This work is providing the evidence-base for developing climate adaptation strategies that minimise threats and capitalise on opportunities presented by climate change.

Our climate impact and adaptation research cover all components of NSW marine ecosystems, from habitat-forming kelp forests to large-bodied fish species.

What have we achieved so far?

To date, we have:

• Shown how quickly many marine fishes are shifting south along the NSW coastline in response to ocean warming.
• Identified where NSW kelp forests are likely to be vulnerable and resilient to the effects of future climate change.
• Detected the impacts of flood events on habitat-forming species within NSW estuaries and shown how species recover from these impacts.
• Shown how climate change is likely to impact the density of long-spined sea urchins along the south-eastern Australian coastline.
• Predicted the future range extension of coral communities along the NSW coast.

Update March to June 2024

The NSW Marine Heatwave Response Plan was drafted for scientific publication.

This plan presents the NSW example as a world-first for temperate marine systems, facilitating development and adoption of similar plans within alternative jurisdictions.

Senior scientists have published a compilation of breakthrough innovations that will be essential for scaling up marine macrophyte restoration and achieving targets, providing a clear pathway towards leading global kelp restoration in NSW.

Next generation sequencing of Posidonia australis estuarine populations has been completed where comprehensive estuarine environmental data is available.

A manuscript has been completed and submitted for publication that explores the genetic response (signatures of adaptation) of populations with climate-driven environmental variables with a view to generate a Donor Registry.

The aim is to generate a dataset of environmentally associated genotypes (by location) to assist managers with development of optimised regeneration and restoration plans for future-proofing activities.

For more information about our achievements in Marine Estate Management Strategy, please visit our report page.

Statewide

Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development - Fisheries Research

NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (NSW DCCEEW)

We are collaborating with the University of Western Australia on kelp research and regularly engage with other university collaborators on research projects.

• Threat and risk assessment
• Projections of the loss of kelp forest biomass along the NSW coast under climate change
• Impacts of extreme flooding on near-shore NSW kelp forests
• Are corals coming to a reef near you? Estimating the range extension of coral communities along the NSW coastline under climate change
• Assessing the impacts of climate change on densities of long-spined sea urchins in south-eastern Australia
• The southern redistributions of large-bodied fishes off NSW in response to climate change
• Unique diversity in low latitude kelp forests