Climate change research

Why is this project important?

The NSW marine environment is one of the most rapidly warming regions of the global ocean.

These changes are having major impacts on our marine estate ecosystems, yet the severity of many impacts remain unknown. This makes it difficult to prepare for, and adapt to, any changes.

This project is filling critical knowledge gaps regarding the impact of climate change on the NSW coast to help our marine ecosystems and ocean users adapt to climate change.

We are undertaking strategic research to fill knowledge gaps on the effects of climate change within the NSW marine estate.

This work is providing the evidence-base for developing climate adaptation strategies that minimise threats and capitalise on opportunities presented by climate change.

Our climate impact and adaptation research cover all components of NSW marine ecosystems, from habitat-forming kelp forests to large-bodied fish species.

What have we achieved so far?

To date, we have:

• Shown how quickly many marine fishes are shifting south along the NSW coastline in response to ocean warming.
• Identified where NSW kelp forests are likely to be vulnerable and resilient to the effects of future climate change.
• Detected the impacts of flood events on habitat-forming species within NSW estuaries and shown how species recover from these impacts.
• Shown how climate change is likely to impact the density of long-spined sea urchins along the south-eastern Australian coastline.
• Predicted the future range extension of coral communities along the NSW coast.
• Data from research has also been applied in 2 recently published papers that explore Blue Groper and Urchin Barrens in NSW.

The NSW abalone marine heatwave response plan has now been formally published in the international journal Climate Risk Management, highlighting the scientific strength and practical value of this work.

Developed in partnership with NSW abalone fishers, the plan sets out clear, evidence-based actions to minimise stock losses and improve industry resilience during extreme warming events. Its adoption into the industry’s Environmental Code of Practice means the framework is now part of everyday operations, strengthening long-term climate adaptation across the NSW marine estate. Further, the plan is now being adapted by the Victorian Abalone Association demonstrating broad uptake.

To complement this work, we have introduced a new bimonthly NSW Ocean Temperature and Marine Heatwave Update for internal stakeholders. Delivered during the warmest 6 months of the year, the update brings together real-time observations and short-term forecasts to help teams across research, policy, management and compliance understand emerging conditions. This enables teams to better interpret emerging patterns and link observed ecological or operational responses to temperature-driven environmental change.

Research into the vulnerability of the seagrass Posidonia australis to climate accelerated flood events is also progressing. We have completed sampling across 3 estuaries with different flooding regimes, and genetic analyses and environmental data collection are underway.

Publications are in development exploring population genetics in Port Stephens and the species’ responses to salinity and temperature gradients across multiple estuaries. Early findings suggest polyploidy in some populations, opening a new line of investigation into how this may enhance climate resilience.

We published a manuscript in the Journal of Phycology examining the Adaptive genetic potential of the bull kelp Durvillaea amatheiae. The study shows that NSW populations have limited capacity to adapt to future ocean warming, providing important insights for conservation and management planning.

For more information about our achievements in Marine Estate Management Strategy, please visit our report page.

Statewide

Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development

NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (NSW DCCEEW)

We are collaborating with the University of Western Australia on kelp research and regularly engage with other university collaborators on research projects.

• Threat and risk assessment
• Projections of the loss of kelp forest biomass along the NSW coast under climate change
• Impacts of extreme flooding on near-shore NSW kelp forests
• Are corals coming to a reef near you? Estimating the range extension of coral communities along the NSW coastline under climate change
• Assessing the impacts of climate change on densities of long-spined sea urchins in south-eastern Australia
• The southern redistributions of large-bodied fishes off NSW in response to climate change
• Unique diversity in low latitude kelp forests